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标题: 信息评论、发布---抛砖引玉 [打印本页]

作者: lishi21    时间: 2004-11-30 11:23
标题: 信息评论、发布---抛砖引玉
<font color="#0000FF"><font size="3">为加强信息交流,鄙人以后会经常发表一些愚见,希望大家多指点</font></font><br />&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; <font color="#DC143C">聚酯化纤类评论</font><br />聚酯类市场部分产品今天走势开始有了变化,涤纶长丝的反弹给市场带来了一点曙光。28号盛泽市场涤纶长丝就出现了涨跌并存的局面。DTY网络丝的几个品种有100-300元/吨的下跌,淮安天意75D/144F由26号的17800元/吨跌到17500元/吨。吴江神鹰150D/144F由14000元/吨跌到13900元/吨。但POY长丝却明显反弹,萧山恒逸200D/96F两天以来涨200元,已到11700元/吨,无锡宏达、桐乡桐昆等厂家的POY长丝也有100-200元的涨势。今天,这种上涨势头更加明显。DTY止跌反弹,POY继续上扬、FDY在这两者的带动下,跟着上涨。其中萧山恒逸200D/96F、300D/96F、400D/96F分别达到1.27、1.25、1.27(单位:万元/吨),涨副达到200元/吨。这在阴雨连绵的聚酯“冬天”是一个亮点。<br />企业报价也有变化,11月29日,荣盛、红山、恒逸、兴惠、开氏、龙达、金洋DTY参考报价如下:<br />品种&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 规格&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 色&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 等级&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11月3日报&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11月7日报&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11月15日报&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11月22日报&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 11月29日报<br />DTY&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 300D/96F&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 白&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 优&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12900 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13000 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12600 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12400 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12500 <br />DTY&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 300D/96(网 )&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 白&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 优&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13300 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13400 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13000 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12800 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12900 <br />DTY&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 200D/96F&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 白&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 优&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13100 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13200 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12800 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12600 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12700 <br />DTY&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 200D/96(网)&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 白&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 优&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13900 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 14000 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13700 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13500 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13600 <br />DTY&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 150D/48F&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 白&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 优&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13500 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13600 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13100 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 12900 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13000 <br />DTY&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 150D/48(网)&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 白&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 优&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 14500 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 14600 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 14100 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 13900 &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 14000 <br />&nbsp; &nbsp;企业报价的提高,也进一步刺激了市场的信心,对后市走强起了定心丸的作用。长丝反弹的另一个原因就是上游PTA提价,PTA上调50-100元,现款提货成交价达8350-8400元/吨。成本涨高,迫使整体厂家抬高价格,下游企业看到原料提升,担心以后长丝价格又会大幅反弹,增加了购买欲望,于是市场需求稳中有升。从库存压力来看,经过一两个月的限产保价,涤丝厂开机率大幅降低,使得库存明显减少,一般的厂家库存在1000-2000吨左右,需求又有趋于平衡势态。但考虑到下游坯布市场一直不景气,长丝大幅反弹的几率不大,很可能小副调整为主。<br />涤纶短纤的运气就没有这么好,今天的行情表面看起来平稳,但成交量甚少,市场普遍不看好。在貌似安稳的外表下,多有让价的现象。市场最低价徘徊在11600左右,江阴三房巷送到价从上周末的12000元/吨下跌200元。下观涤纶纱线市场,也不理想。行情仍然平稳偏弱,纯涤纱的32s价格下调100元/吨,在14300元/T,成交量也很少,有下滑的趋势。这与棉纱走向平稳有关系,毕竟现在棉花比涤纶便宜很多。现在的人棉纱受棉纱的影响,销售也开始走下坡路。<br />聚酯切片市场反映仍然很平淡,价格稳定在11000-11100之间,相比前两天,由于PTA的提价,微有反弹 。后市以盘整为主。
作者: 紫帆    时间: 2004-11-30 19:06
lishi21朋友,后市以盘整为主,其趋势的大概差不多平稳了吧,涨的可能性应该不大了吧?
作者: 纺织一兵    时间: 2004-11-30 21:51
谢谢楼主给我们带来很及时的商业信息,欢迎lishi21朋友来到论坛与大家交流,谢谢!
作者: lishi21    时间: 2004-12-1 14:42
紫帆朋友,作为搞纺织的,看到市场这个样子,我很难受,要知道有多少纺织女工因此发不出工资,或者下岗,纺织业本就是一个薄利行业,近几年来亏得很厉害,我也很希望市场能景气起来。<br />&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;不过,不管是棉花还是化纤(特别是聚酯类)行业,还是危机重重,这样的盘整状态只是一种表象,年内聚酯下跌是必然趋势,特别是涤纶短纤维下跌空间很大。<br />&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;当然,这只是鄙人的愚见。你怎么看呢?




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